The Mighty LAX

 

Background

Once upon a time Stagecoach (Bedford depot) operated two routes in to Luton:

81 - hourly service through central Bedfordshire villages along the A6 between Bedford and Luton

99 - hourly service between Luton Airport, Luton and Milton Keynes via the M1 motorway

The 99 has a reasonably interesting history as it was originally the VT99, a commitment in the first round of rail franchising for Virgin Trains to provide a coach link between Milton Keynes and Luton Airport (and there was also a VT98 between Watford Junction station and Heathrow Airport).  Post-Virgin Trains the 99 was usually operated by coaches towards the end of their front line service life. The attraction of MK as both a leisure and employment centre for Lutonians sustained the route and eventual operation by longer tri-axe coaches released by service decimation changes on the X5 (Cambridge-Bedford-MK-Oxford).

At the end of it's days the 99 was operated by these smart Plaxton coaches, which remained branded for the remnants of the X5: Cambridge has been peeled off the top of the destination list.

Fast forward to October 2022 and the 81 and 99 were combined: rightly this would average out as service 90, but instead the moniker MK1 was adopted. Probably to the chagrin of colleagues at Stagecoach Northampton depot who used the number MK1 for their service between Milton Keynes at the British Grand Prix at Silverstone.

The MK1 was therefore a 'V' shape: Bedford-Luton Airport-Milton Keynes.  It created a new link between Bedford, the A6 and the Airport, and Stagecoach elected to route this leg via the Luton suburb of Wigmore (you'd only know it for the Asda) rather than the more direct route along Kimpton Road, past the Vauxhall factory (Home of the Vivaro). 

Route via Wigmore, courtesy of Bustimes.org

Worthy of mention but no longer relevant are two colossal scheduling screw ups:

1) The adoption of a flat running time irrespective of day or time of day.  You probably don't need to be a bus scheduler to know that there's more traffic on the roads in the morning and evening peak travel times and journeys take longer at these times by bus or car; and

2) The adoption of a one-way route around Luton, so buses came from Bedford, through Luton town centre and Wigmore to the airport, and then departed the airport to the M1 northbound.  I think the service was supposed to do a double run from the M1 Junction 11 to Chaul End roundabout and back again, serving the Luton Travelodge stop which was always very busy for the old 99.  

M1 to Chaul End roundabout double run?

The abysmal performance of the MK1 led to scheduling changes which put the 'saved' bus back in to the schedule and serving Luton Interchange on runs to and from both Bedford and Milton Keynes.

Current Context

Some of my bus industry friends were sceptical about the routing of the MK1 through Wigmore.  I can't claim to be a prolific user, but when I have travelled this was my casual observation is that the service is used for through travel to/from Milton Keynes.  After all it connects a Luton suburb with the attractive employment and shopping opportunities in MK.  I have no doubt the Government's subsidised £2 flat bus fare has helped too, by far the best thing done by the administration at the time.

As a significant Luton suburb Wigmore already had buses to and from the town centre: Arriva's 101 service passed through between Hitchin, the Airport and the town centre and Centrebus's 17/17A service provides a half hourly circular service (itself recently and usefully extended beyond Luton town centre to the Luton & Dunstable Hospital).  

However, in spring 2024 Arriva restructured their Hitchin-Luton corridor which removed direct services between Wigmore and Luton Airport. Again only my observation but I always wondered how important this link is, as it isn't that far to walk and is an eminently sensible cycle commute, the route 101 passengers always seemed to travel through the airport rather than to or from it, and the operating hours were not airport-focussed (unlike Arriva's A service which keeps staff and passengers moving 24/7: airports generate a remarkable amount of overnight travel). 

Sweet Dreams

Unexpectedly, Stagecoach's Bedford depot thin they have spotted a gap in the market here.  Obviously they have all the passenger and revenue data for their MK1 link via Wigmore so their conclusion must be there is good money to be earned.  So on Monday 23rd June 2024 they introduced a new hourly-ish service solely between Luton Interchange (town centre), Wigmore and Luton Airport.  This complements the hourly-ish MK1, although as the timetable below will show, it very much varies in usefulness.

This service is made more remarkable by the fact Stagecoach are dedicating a double deck bus to it (I expected it to be a role for the oldest Enviro 200 singe decker in the depot) and it appears to run empty from/to Bedford; I had expected they would run an extra short trip on the MK1 to at least try and earn some revenue from that lengthy dead run.

The new service has been given the service identifier (as it's not a number) 'LAX'.  Not to be confused with the airport code LAX - Los Angeles International, or the Luton Airport Express train service.  

All that preamble leads me to the point of this post: the timetable.  Dear oh dear, take all the lessons learnt from the disastrous implementation of the MK1 and repeat them! 

• The running time is flat and not graduated, so it seems that a LAX is timetabled to overtake an MK1 in the morning, despite running exactly the same route with the same stopping patterns;
• From the interchange the headways for much of the day are 10:50, meaning ten minutes between departures at 10 and 20 past the hour, and then a 50 minute gap until the next departure;
• The MK1 does have graduated running times allowing more time in the rush hours: in the evening this results in an MK1 and LAX leaving Luton Interchange at exactly the same time at 17:20!;
• The return from the airport is better, with a 25:35 minute headway, and over lunchtime becomes exactly half hourly, as you'd expect;
• However in the evening that becomes 15:45 due to the longer running times afforded to the MK1 making its way from Milton Keynes;
• There's a gap mid morning presumably to allow for a driver meal break.

Unfortunately because the inbound MK1 from Wigmore does not form the outbound MK1 via Wigmore it is not possible to perfectly insert the LAX trips on the opposite half hour.  

Enviro 400 bus on the new LAX.  The very non standard layout of the destination display leaves something to be desired.

What Next

As the efficiencies originally envisaged by joining the 81 and 99 to form the MK1 have not been realised - the extra bus has been added back in to the schedule for reliability - I expect that the services will ultimately be split back in to their constituent parts.

However with Stagecoach's new found enthusiasm for serving Wigmore, and the increased vehicle provision by adding an eighth vehicle for the LAX, I do not expect that the split will replicate what went beforehand. Clearly there are new journey opportunities being, and to be, served.

Before any of that though what we do know is that competition in the Airport corridor has recently increased with Arriva extending their F70/F77 services from Milton Keynes via Leighton Buzzard (i.e. the very long way round) to the airport.

And at the end of July 2024, Arriva introduce new competition on the Luton to Milton Keynes corridor with their own express service, imaginatively titled the X1.  I'm told the X1 will be using coach vehicles, so arguably more comfortable than the double deck buses used by Stagecoach (although some but not all do have high back seats), and will serve Luton Interchange, those popular stops by the Travelodge, and then Dunstable before going up the A5 to Milton Keynes rather than the M1.

The growth of employment in out of town warehousing particularly in MK means that the MK1 can be full and standing between MK and Luton; add in the X1 serving Dunstable, there may just be space in the Wigmore and Milton Keynes markets for both operators.

Though new venture capital owners of both Arriva and Stagecoach may have other plans!